For a look at the Power Point presentation that accompanied this talk, go here.
Reporters covering or attempting to understand China must understand that this huge nation is following its own path — a path that combines capitalism, socialism, Communism and its own Chinese identity, a top East West Center China expert told the Bankgok Media Conference.
What is emerging is a form of “Sino-Capitalism” with its own special characteristic, challenges and opportunities, Center researcher Chris McNally said.
This view, he said, rejects as perhaps overly simplistic the two prevailing thoughts about China today:
The first is that China in on an inevitable path toward a political, economic and cultural system that will bring it into direct conflict with the United States, either economically or militarily or perhaps both.
The second, favored by Chinese leaders, is a a form of “peaceful development” which implies an absence of conflict and China emerging as a permanent global power.
“These (two) perspectives at best misconstrue the dynamics of Chimna’s rise and are at worst dangerous to our understanding of what exactly China’s rise entails,” McNally told the group.
The security threat theme can become a self-fulfilling prophecy. The “peaceful” rise glosses over real and future problems.
There is today no direct “China threat,, in the traditional security sense, “McNally” argued. Rather, what is emerging is a “capitalism vs. capitalism” scenario where two visions of capitalism operate at the same time.
This doesn’t mean China’s astounding rise will be without serious potential problems, McNally said.
On the security front, the major issue is China’s feeling that it is boxed in, with no easy access to the open ocean controlled in the region by the United States (a relic of the Cold War). In response, China’s leadership continues to work on building a huge, powerful navy.
Perhaps more worrisome, McNally said, is the environmental threat as China industrializes pell mell. “The environmental implications are quite grave,” he said, “Growth mania is still the controlling factor.”
Or, as one author put it, McNally said, it is now “China vs. The Earth.”
So China’s rise will be somewhat disruptive and difficult for the international system to absorb, McNally said. But it need not lead to outright conflict or chaos if leadership on both sides makes wise choices.
“Chinese and American policy makers must be extremely careful to avoid another hegemonic power rivalry,” McNally said. “Too much thinking now leads to old perspectives.”
The path to new perspectives obviously involves smart and informed journalism. Is the media, in Asia and in the United States, up to the challenge?
During a question and answer period, McNally made several points:
* The Chinese demographic “collapse,” as today’s working population ages and is not adequately replaced, has forced authorities to scramble to accumulate capital before growth rates slow.
* The Chinese “diaspora” should not be seen as a sinister or organized effort to control the third world. Rather, it is just another facet of Sino Capitalism, not some form of global Chinese nationalism, he said.
* If there is any people in the world with skindeep nationalism, it is the Chinese. One of the least relevant threats is that of Chinese ethnic minorities (in other countries) bonding together and taking over the world,” he said.
* There is little prospect of an internal collapse within China, despite growing unrest and rich-poor divisions. “Unrest is happening, but there is an efficient management system for dealing with unrest,” he said,.
The real threat to Chinese stability, he argued, is faltering economic growth. “If a recession in the United States (sweeps) into China, there could be major problems.”
“My fear,” McNally concluded, “is not collapse, but a form of fascism. There is a very deep awareness with the urban Chinese populace, at least, that indeed things have to change.”
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For a look at the Power Point presentation that accompanied this talk, go HERE